Last week, the trading of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) commenced, as reported by Cointelegraph. Many speculators were anticipating this event to result in a price increase for Bitcoin. However, that was not the case. {showAds}
According to James Van Straten, a research and data analyst at CryptoSlate, the total sales amounted to approximately $4.7 billion. This information was also reported by Cointelegraph in their article "BTC Speculators Dump $5B: 5 Things Bitcoin this Week."
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which had previously reached a score of 76 and was considered in a state of "extreme greed", has now dropped to a neutral level of 52 according to recent reports. This change can be viewed as a positive indication that the excess enthusiasm within the market may have dissipated. {showAds}
After the occurrence of the "sell the news" event, traders are now shifting their attention towards the macroeconomic data. The focus is on the United States Federal Reserve, which is predicted to begin reducing rates in March according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool data. This could potentially lead to a positive performance for risk-assets.
Has the decline in Bitcoin and altcoins come to an end? Is it possible for the top cryptocurrencies to continue their upward trend in the near future? Let's examine the graphs to determine the answer.
Analysis of S&P 500 Index prices
On January 8th, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) saw an increase from the 20-day exponential moving average (4,727), signaling that the upward trend is still in place. Traders continue to perceive any declines as a chance to purchase. {showAds}
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| SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView |
Based on the ascending trend of moving averages, it can be inferred that buyers hold the advantage. However, the relative strength index (RSI) shows a negative divergence, which calls for caution. As long as the value stays above 4,800, there is a high possibility for the index to reach the significant level of 5,000. {showAds}
One potential drawback is that the 20-day EMA serves as the initial point of support to monitor. If this threshold is breached, it could indicate a decrease in buying momentum. In such a scenario, the index may decline towards the 50-day simple moving average (4,601).
Analysis of the price of the U.S. Dollar Index
For the past few days, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been in a consolidation phase near the 20-day EMA (102) as it continues its downward trend.
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| DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView |
Both the flat 20-day EMA and the RSI around the midpoint do not provide a distinct advantage to either the bulls or the bears. Should the price remain below the 20-day EMA, the bears will attempt to drive the index towards the crucial support level of 101. {showAds}
The 50-day SMA (103) may pose a challenge for the bulls. However, if the 50-day SMA is broken and closes above, it could signal a more robust rebound to 104.50. This price point may once again encounter significant selling pressure from the bears.
Analysis of Bitcoin's Price
On January 14th, Bitcoin fell and closed below the support line, indicating that the bears are attempting to stage a comeback.
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| BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView |
The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $43,693 has begun to decline, and the relative strength index (RSI) is approaching 46, indicating that the bears have a slight advantage.
Selling pressure is expected to be encountered at the 20-day EMA during any potential recovery. A decline from the resistance above could indicate a change in the market sentiment from buying on dips to selling on rallies. It is possible for the BTC/USDT pair to drop to $40,000 and potentially even lower to $37,980. {showAds}
In contrast to this belief, should purchasers successfully surpass the hurdle at $44,700, it will indicate that the corrective period may have come to an end. The pair will then make an attempt to reach the significant psychological milestone of $50,000.
Analysis of Ether Price
The bulls are currently attempting to maintain the price above the immediate support level of $2,458 as the market corrects in an upward direction.
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| ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView |
The current situation shows that the bulls are in control as indicated by the positive RSI and the 20-day EMA ($2,398) which is on the rise. A strong buying trend is expected if the price bounces back from the current level or from $2,400. This could lead to a potential rally of the ETH/USDT pair to reach $2,717. In case this level is surpassed, the next target could be $3,000.
If the price continues to decrease and falls below $2,400, the optimistic outlook will be contradicted in the short term. This could potentially lead the pair to drop to the 50-day SMA ($2,282) and eventually reach $2,100. {showAds}
Analysis of BNB Price
On January 12th, the price of the stock fell below the 20-day EMA which was at $301. However, the bears were unable to maintain the price below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $291.
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| BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView |
This triggered a surge of relief, gaining speed on Jan. 15. Should purchasers maintain the price above $317, the BNB/USDT duo has potential to ascend to $338 and potentially push towards $350. The $350 mark is expected to draw considerable selling pressure from the bears, however, if the bulls manage to overcome this obstacle, the pair could potentially skyrocket to $400. {showAds}
One key level to monitor for potential downside movement is $291. If the price falls below this level, it could potentially pull down towards the neckline.
Analysis of XRP Price
Efforts made by the bullish market to initiate a rebound in XRP. The XRP price index is available on the fortbes website.
On Jan. 11, the downtrend line halted, indicating that the bears are still dominating.
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| XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView |
The current trend of the 20-day EMA ($0.59) and RSI below 43 indicate that the market is likely to move downward. If the price falls below the support level of $0.56, it could trigger further selling, potentially leading to a decline to $0.50 and then $0.46.
In order to avoid the decrease, purchasers will need to push the XRP/USDT pair above the trend line. This action will nullify the bearish formation and initiate a rebound towards $0.67, with potential to reach $0.74. {showAds}
Analysis of Solana's Price
The term "Solana" refers to a blockchain platform. Jan. 14 downtrend line saw a rebound, suggesting that the bears are actively defending this level.
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| SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView |
The 20-day EMA ($96) has become stable, and the RSI is close to the middle, indicating an equilibrium between the amount of goods and services available and the amount of goods and services desired. If the value dips below the upward trend line, the SOL/USDT pair could potentially drop to $67.
In the event that the price exceeds the downtrend line, it will indicate that the correction is possibly complete. This could potentially lead the pair to reach $117 and eventually $126. In order for the uptrend to continue, buyers must successfully surpass this obstacle. {showAds}
Analysis of Cardano's Price
Cardano is a blockchain platform that is designed to provide a secure and transparent system for users to transact and exchange digital currencies. This platform is built on a proof-of-stake algorithm, which ensures that transactions are verified and added to the blockchain in a decentralized manner. {showAds}
Cardano aims to solve the scalability and interoperability issues faced by other blockchain platforms, making it a promising option for the future of digital currency.
Over the past few days, the price has been declining within a descending channel pattern. However, there is a small silver lining as the bulls have managed to keep the price above the breakout level of $0.46.
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| ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView |
If the price of ADA/USDT is pushed above the 20-day EMA ($0.55), it has the potential to rise towards the downtrend line of the channel. A clear breakthrough and closure above this channel may signal the end of the downtrend. In such a scenario, the pair could potentially see a significant increase towards the resistance level of $0.68.
On the other hand, if the 20-day EMA is rejected by the price, it will indicate that the bears are still selling during uptrends. This could potentially lead to the pair falling towards the support line of the channel, where there may be an opportunity for buyers to enter. {showAds}
Analysis of Avalanche Prices
Since January 12th, the price has been trading lower than the $38 breakdown level. However, despite their efforts, the bears have not been able to bring the price down to the solid support level of $31.
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| AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView |
The 20-day EMA ($37.32) has a downward slope, and the RSI is slightly below the midpoint, suggesting a slight advantage for the sellers. In the event that the support at the 50-day SMA ($35.68) is broken, the AVAX/USDT pair could potentially revisit the $31 support level. If there is a significant rebound from this level, it is possible for the pair to remain within the $31 to $43.50 range for a period of time. {showAds}
The upcoming popular action is expected to commence once the price surpasses $43.50 due to buying pressure, or if the pair drops below the critical support level of $31 due to selling pressure.
Analysis of Dogecoin's Price
The price has remained below the 20-day EMA ($0.08) in recent days, yet the bears have been unsuccessful in pushing it down to $0.07.
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| DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView |
According to the downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative zone, sellers have the upper hand. In case the price declines from its current position or the 20-day EMA, the bears will make another attempt to push the DOGE/USDT pair to $0.07. {showAds}
In contrast to this belief, if the price manages to surpass the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bears are relinquishing their control. This will prompt buyers to attempt to push the pair towards the challenging upper resistance range of $0.10 to $0.11.
